University of Connecticut University of UC Title Fallback Connecticut

2015 to 2040 Population Projections – State Level

July 31, 2017 edition

Note: Data were revised on September 19, 2017 to address an error in the original published version of the data on July 31, 2017.

The Connecticut State Data Center provides population projections to assist state agencies, non-profit organizations, businesses, governments, and centers/organizations to identify demographic trends and changes within Connecticut. These projections are created based upon administrative and survey datasets and while these projections are developed based on the best data sources available, actual population changes may vary from these projections. To assist in planning, analysis, and decision making, the population projections have been developed based on state derived fertility rates.

The development of these population projections were funded by the Office of Policy and Management (OPM) with additional support provided by the UConn Library.


Summary  |  Press ReleaseGraphics | Usage and Limitations | Data Visualizations | Data Tables  |  Acknowledgements


Summary of the 2015 to 2040 Population Projections – State Level

The Connecticut State Data Center projections predict a 1.7% growth rate for the total population in Connecticut. The population will increase from 3.593 million in 2015 to 3.654 million in 2040.projected_Connecticut_population_growth_2015_2040_table

 

The slow projected growth mirrors that of states in the region, with most states in New England predicting small gains in population, or even negative growth, in the foreseeable future

 

From 2010 to 2030, Connecticut is projected to gain 1.7%, Maine is projected to lose 0.5%, Massachusetts is projected to gain 10.4%, New Hampshire is projected to gain 6.6%, New York is projected to gain 2.2%, Rhode Island is projected to gain 1.7%, and Vermont is projected to gain 7.1% in population, according to projections produced by each of the respective states.

 

A main factor driving low projected growth are regional trends in fertility rates “ the number of births per 1,000 women of childbearing age. New England states fertility rates trailed those of all other states in 2015, according to the latest data from U.S. Health and Human Services. Connecticut’s fertility rate of 52.5 was the 5th lowest in the country, slightly greater than rates in Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Vermont, which ranked last.

For a complete summary of the 2015 to 2040 Population Projections view the press release.

 

 


Graphics

Click on each graphic to view/download the full graphic in high-resolution. These graphics may be used in press releases, research articles, presentations, or other digital and/or print formats with the branding included and a link/reference back to the Connecticut State Data Center.

projected_Connecticut_population_growth_2015_2040_table natural_increase_in_the_population_2010_2016 fertility_rates_by_state_2015 ct_population_1790_2040

 

 

 

 

 


Population Projections Usage and Limitations

The population projections provide general statistical projections of the population by sex and five year age cohort from 2015 to 2040. The projections are based on birth and mortality data from the Connecticut Department of Public Health, migration data from the U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates and American Community Survey (ACS), and population data from the U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census. These projections provide population projections for individuals who are residents, or are projected to become, residents of the state of Connecticut. These projections are intended to guide planning, analysis, and decision making in the state and are reviewed on an annual basis to compare projections to the latest administrative and survey data available to identify if there are any significant deviations from the projected population to the observed population for the state of Connecticut.

These projections are based on an annual average of the resident population of the state of Connecticut. Resident population is defined as those persons who usually reside in the state of Connecticut (where they live and sleep most of the time). Individuals who reside in another state but either own property or work remotely in the state of Connecticut are not included in these population projections.

The projections are based on statistical models which utilize historical birth, mortality, and migration data to inform the model and the actual population numbers can be influenced by economic, policy, individual decisions, and other aspects which are not accounted for in the model.

 


Data Visualizations

To view trends in the population for the sate of Connecticut and the projections, the Connecticut State Data Center has published a data story which provides the viewer with context of past trends, projected future trends, and broader trends across the U.S. and the Northeast. For each visualization, users can interact with the data and download an image of each visualization.

2015_2040_projections_visualization

 

 


Data Tables

The Connecticut State Data Center has published these data tables to the State of Connecticut Open Data portal to allow users to download, visualize, filter, and connect to the data via APIs. To provide users with a brief summary of the data, we have included data tables below for each of the five year intervals starting with 2015 and ending with 2040.

View and Download Data – Connecticut Open Data data.ct.gov


2015  |  2020  |  2025  |  2030  |  2035  |  2040


2015 Population Projections – State Level

Year Geography Age Group Male Female Total
2015 Connecticut 0_4 97657 93788 191445
2015 Connecticut 5_9 110033 104930 214964
2015 Connecticut 10_14 118022 113033 231055
2015 Connecticut 15_19 130428 124877 255305
2015 Connecticut 20_24 123228 114370 237598
2015 Connecticut 25_29 112179 108160 220339
2015 Connecticut 30_34 107213 109086 216299
2015 Connecticut 35_39 102434 106018 208452
2015 Connecticut 40_44 116654 123734 240388
2015 Connecticut 45_49 131862 139397 271259
2015 Connecticut 50_54 138654 146523 285176
2015 Connecticut 55_59 126680 132905 259584
2015 Connecticut 60_64 104711 114349 219060
2015 Connecticut 65_69 80188 91062 171250
2015 Connecticut 70_74 55247 65498 120745
2015 Connecticut 75_79 38854 51554 90408
2015 Connecticut 80_84 28918 43046 71964
2015 Connecticut 85+ 28704 59307 88011
2015 Connecticut Total 1751665 1841636 3593301

 

 


2020 Population Projections – State Level

Year Geography Age Group Male Female Total
2020 Connecticut 0_4 98476 94488 192964
2020 Connecticut 5_9 104776 100647 205424
2020 Connecticut 10_14 114463 109364 223827
2020 Connecticut 15_19 126189 121746 247935
2020 Connecticut 20_24 125545 116384 241929
2020 Connecticut 25_29 118518 111828 230346
2020 Connecticut 30_34 112785 113366 226151
2020 Connecticut 35_39 106997 110352 217350
2020 Connecticut 40_44 110287 115964 226251
2020 Connecticut 45_49 120680 128181 248861
2020 Connecticut 50_54 129559 137342 266900
2020 Connecticut 55_59 126457 133749 260206
2020 Connecticut 60_64 113581 123219 236800
2020 Connecticut 65_69 85579 96609 182188
2020 Connecticut 70_74 62237 74901 137139
2020 Connecticut 75_79 45312 57712 103024
2020 Connecticut 80_84 29606 43168 72773
2020 Connecticut 85+ 28010 56524 84535
2020 Connecticut Total 1759058 1845545 3604603

 

 


2025 Population Projections – State Level

Year Geography Age Group Male Female Total
2025 Connecticut 0_4 100771 96687 197458
2025 Connecticut 5_9 105550 101283 206833
2025 Connecticut 10_14 109639 105442 215081
2025 Connecticut 15_19 122654 118338 240993
2025 Connecticut 20_24 123545 115498 239043
2025 Connecticut 25_29 122583 114689 237271
2025 Connecticut 30_34 119428 117877 237305
2025 Connecticut 35_39 112695 114971 227665
2025 Connecticut 40_44 114772 120144 234916
2025 Connecticut 45_49 114321 120483 234803
2025 Connecticut 50_54 118877 126437 245314
2025 Connecticut 55_59 118274 125301 243574
2025 Connecticut 60_64 113340 124293 237633
2025 Connecticut 65_69 92481 103530 196011
2025 Connecticut 70_74 64535 77760 142295
2025 Connecticut 75_79 50921 65835 116756
2025 Connecticut 80_84 34497 48338 82835
2025 Connecticut 85+ 27888 55088 82976
2025 Connecticut Total 1766771 1851992 3618763

 


2030 Population Projections – State Level

Year Geography Age Group Male Female Total
2030 Connecticut 0_4 103006 98841 201847
2030 Connecticut 5_9 108037 103621 211658
2030 Connecticut 10_14 110376 106028 216403
2030 Connecticut 15_19 118512 114810 233322
2030 Connecticut 20_24 120775 113316 234091
2030 Connecticut 25_29 120454 113305 233759
2030 Connecticut 30_34 123806 121316 245122
2030 Connecticut 35_39 119080 119503 238583
2030 Connecticut 40_44 121405 125731 247135
2030 Connecticut 45_49 118746 124503 243249
2030 Connecticut 50_54 112815 119112 231927
2030 Connecticut 55_59 108597 115424 224021
2030 Connecticut 60_64 105995 116671 222666
2030 Connecticut 65_69 91495 103577 195073
2030 Connecticut 70_74 69120 82616 151735
2030 Connecticut 75_79 52549 68300 120849
2030 Connecticut 80_84 38689 55251 93941
2030 Connecticut 85+ 30722 57889 88612
2030 Connecticut Total 1774177 1859816 3633994

2035 Population Projections – State Level

Year Geography Age Group Male Female Total
2035 Connecticut 0_4 104110 99910 204020
2035 Connecticut 5_9 110334 105791 216125
2035 Connecticut 10_14 112921 108451 221373
2035 Connecticut 15_19 118384 114539 232924
2035 Connecticut 20_24 117226 110284 227510
2035 Connecticut 25_29 119038 112382 231421
2035 Connecticut 30_34 121093 119079 240173
2035 Connecticut 35_39 123222 122851 246073
2035 Connecticut 40_44 128490 130937 259427
2035 Connecticut 45_49 125982 130637 256620
2035 Connecticut 50_54 116988 122856 239844
2035 Connecticut 55_59 103073 108686 211759
2035 Connecticut 60_64 97308 107462 204770
2035 Connecticut 65_69 85004 96616 181620
2035 Connecticut 70_74 66856 81473 148329
2035 Connecticut 75_79 56173 72429 128602
2035 Connecticut 80_84 39768 57536 97304
2035 Connecticut 85+ 33942 63536 97478
2035 Connecticut Total 1779913 1865457 3645370

 


2040 Population Projections – State Level

Year Geography Age Group Male Female Total
2040 Connecticut 0_4 103746 99571 203317
2040 Connecticut 5_9 111414 106812 218227
2040 Connecticut 10_14 115207 110635 225842
2040 Connecticut 15_19 120230 116085 236316
2040 Connecticut 20_24 116017 108992 225009
2040 Connecticut 25_29 117746 111453 229199
2040 Connecticut 30_34 120227 118726 238953
2040 Connecticut 35_39 120405 120391 240796
2040 Connecticut 40_44 133230 134856 268086
2040 Connecticut 45_49 133539 136195 269734
2040 Connecticut 50_54 124026 128997 253023
2040 Connecticut 55_59 106818 112071 218890
2040 Connecticut 60_64 92297 101230 193526
2040 Connecticut 65_69 77836 88906 166742
2040 Connecticut 70_74 60996 75106 136102
2040 Connecticut 75_79 54114 71399 125512
2040 Connecticut 80_84 42436 61100 103537
2040 Connecticut 85+ 34756 66449 101205
2040 Connecticut Total 1785042 1868973 3654015

 


Acknowledgements

The development of the 2017 edition of the population projections for the state of Connecticut is based on over 2 years of research testing different approaches, administrative and survey datasets, and models before the final projections were developed. This research involved a number of individuals and organizations and we want to acknowledge the following individuals/organizations for their assistance from providing data, to assisting and informing the methodology and approaches research, to developing the final projections, datasets, and visualizations which are available to the user.

Data Providers

Connecticut Department of Public Health, Connecticut Office of Policy and Management, Eversource, GeoLytics, Qualidigm, United Illuminating, U.S. Census Bureau

Dataset Development

Dr. Thomas Cooke (UConn Geography), Xiaojiang Li (CTSDC), Qinglin Hu (CTSDC) Wenjie Wang (CTSDC), Weixing Zhang (CTSDC)

Dataset Feedback and Guidance

Steve Batt (UConn Library), CABE, Dr. Thomas Cooke (UConn Geography), Hartford Data Meetup Group, Michael Howser (UConn Library)

Data Visualization

Steve Batt (UConn Library)

Methodology and Research

Karyn Backus (CT DPH), Michael Howser (UConn Library), Qinglin Hu (CTSDC), Xiaojiang Li (CTSDC), Lloyd Mueller (CT DPH), UMASS Donahue Institute, Wenjie Wang (CTSDC), Weixing Zhang (CTSDC)

Funding and Reporting

Martha Bedard (UConn Library), Stephanie Beron (UConn Geography), Ed Chang (UConn Library), Michael Howser (UConn Library), Deborah Ives (UConn Sponsored Programs), Holly Jeffcoat (UConn Library), Tyler Kleykamp (OPM), MiChelle Lopes (UConn Sponsored Programs), Jillian Lopez (UConn Sponsored Programs), Ryan Marsalisi (UConn Library), Lori Mather (UConn Sponsored Programs)